The October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report increased the Global Carbon Budget for a likely (66%) probability of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards population sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
Canada's Carbon Budget
We have modified our percapita share based on Canada's 35 million population. Canada's percapita share of the carbon budget is 2,100 Mt CO2. We have revised this chart to use the 66% IPCC target.
This revised Canadian chart compares the target that is necessary for Canada to meet the new IPCC target for 1.5 degrees with the existing PCF target.
If Canada wants to do our fair share of keeping global temperatures below 1.5 degrees we should reach net-zero emissions by 2022. Since we don't have enough time to get to zero then we we need to be creative with Carbon Capture and Storage, and also assist underdeveloped countries in reducing their emissions.
Pan-Canadian Framework targets
Canada's Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) emission reduction targets still match the Harper-era target for 2030 (30%). However, according to Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, it is possible to strengthen the targets
If Canada follows PCF, Canada's cumulative emissions will exceed the population-based share of the global carbon budget for keeping global temperatures from increasing over 1.5 degrees C around 2022.
More than half the governments did not have overall targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and of those that did, only two (New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) were on track to meet their targets.
Ontario and Quebec are members of a cap-and-trade system which includes California. Ontario, Quebec, and California have agreed to develop and implement a mechanism for accounting and reporting such reductions.
It is Climate Action Now's position that:
According to the World Resources Institute (WRI):
Our charts illustrate Canada's Pan-Canadian emission reduction targets and the major differences between them and what is necessary to meet our commitments in the Paris Agreement. They represent what the necessary emission reductions need to be for Canada's population-based shares of the global carbon budgets. (Click here for a discussion of emissions-based shared targets)
The emission reduction targets/limits for remaining below 1.5, 2 or 3 degrees C (compared to 2005 emissions of 747 MtCO2e)
On 15 May 2015, Canada submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) (pdf), proposing an economy-wide target to reduce GHG emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. Canada has indicated that it may also use international credits to meet its target. Considering the upward trajectory of the current policy projection against the pledge trajectory, Canada would need to use a large quantity of international credits to meet its target.
Canada intends to use a “net-net” approach to account for LULUCF emissions and a production approach to account for harvested wood products. Accounting for Harvested Wood Products (HWPs) must be performed in a consistent and compatible manner across countries so that accounting of imported and exported HWPs is complete and emissions are not excluded from inventories. It excludes emissions from natural disturbances (e.g. forest fires and insect outbreaks).
In its INDC communication, Canada does not quantify the impact of these accounting rules on the emissions level for compliance in 2030. According to our best estimate based on available data, the net-net accounting approach will generate 126 MtCO2e of credits for Canada in 2030 (see assumptions for further details). Using LULUCF credits weakens the INDC, as these credits can be used to offset emissions increases in other sectors such as energy and industry. We estimate this target is a reduction of 13% below 2005 levels of industrial GHG emissions. This is equivalent to an increase of 8% above 1990 levels.
Canada's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) states, "Canada may also use international mechanisms to achieve the target, subject to robust systems that deliver real and verified emissions reductions." Canada seems to believe in market-based solutions to our otherwise inadequate targets.
Does this mean financing mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage in developing countries? According to Civil Society Equity Review
As a supplement to their domestic INDC’s, each developed country party should set a target to provide the means of implementation to developing countries to address the emissions reductions gap. Developed countries should pledge to work with developing countries to implement the additional actions that are needed. Significantly scaled-up public finance for adaptation and to address loss and damage are also imperative, given the significant impacts that are already being felt, and the escalating impacts that are expected.
The diamonds represent the following:
732 MtCO2e (2014 emissions)
523 MtCO2e (30% below 2005 by 2030)
149 MtCO2e (80% below 2005 by 2050)
The green line represents Canada's population-based limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 1.5 degrees C which is the global temperature increase that Canada pledged to pursue in the Paris Agreement ("pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The yellow line represents Canada's limits for keeping global temperatures from increasing by more than 2 degrees C. This is the maximum global temperature increase that Canada pledged in the Paris Agreement ("holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels")
The red line represents the limits for preventing temperatures from rising above 3 degrees C. This global temperature increase would lead to climate chaos, and we pledged to do our share to prevent this.