The October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report increased the Global Carbon Budget for a likely (66%) probability of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards population sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
Canada's Long-term Targets
According to Canada's Minister Environment and Climate Change, Catherine McKenna, "Market-based solutions are certainly part of the equation to grow a cleaner global economy". Market-based solutions are discussed in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
Canada's Mid-Century Long-Term Strategy (PDF), submitted to the UNFCCC in November 2016, states that by 2050 we anticipate that our emissions will be 80% below 2005 levels and will be achieved by:
- 65% reduction in the combined emissions of the energy sector, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste; and
- 15% from an assumed contribution from credits due to improved land sector sequestration and internationally transferred mitigation outcomes.
Previous estimates of land sequestration were 20-25 Mt/year.
Internationally transferred mitigation outcomes contains two categories:
- Cap and trade credits that Quebec and Ontario might purchase from California (or other future members of the Western Climate Initiative);
- Credits from a yet-to-be-designed UNFCCC carbon trading scheme.
However, it is our opinion that 80% below 2005 levels is not enough to meet our population-based share targets for 2 degrees C. It can only meet our emissions-based share targets for 2 degrees which is very unfair to developing countries.
Civil Society Review has calculated that if Canada is to do our fair share of keeping temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees C our reductions should be as large as all of our domestic emissions around 2027 and approximately 125% of our domestic emissions by 2030.
They also suggest that Canada's fair share emissions reduction should be as large as all of our domestic emissions by around 2030 to keep temperatures from rising above 2 degrees C.