The October 2018 IPCC Special Report (SR15) increased the Global Carbon Budget for a 66% of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards per-capita sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
Canada's Fair Share of the Global Mitigation Effort
This is a discussion of Canada's fair share of the carbon budgets as defined by the Civil Society Review of INDCs.
The important point to take away from this discussion is that Canada will not be able to contribute our fair share of the global mitigation effort without very substantial international mitigation support.
Canada's fair share of the global mitigation effort if we follow the Climate Equity Share mechanism
The charts below were obtained from the Canadian supplement to this report (pdf)
Below 1.5 degrees C
The following chart illustrates what Canada's fair share would be if Canada were to do our fair share of keeping temperatures from rising above 1.5C. It suggests that Canada's fair share emissions reduction should be as large as all of our domestic emissions around 2027 and approximately 125% of our domestic emissions by 2030.
Below 2 degrees C
The following chart illustrates what Canada's fair share would be if we were to do our fair share of keeping temperatures from rising above 2 degreesC. It suggests that Canada's fair share emissions reduction should be as large as all of our domestic emissions by around 2030.
Canada's "Fair" Carbon Budgets
This chart compares different methods of sharing Canada's carbon budgets.
Chart is from the presentation given at the Annual Conference of the Environmental Studies Association of Canada (June 2,2016) by Christian Holz (School of Political Studies, University of Ottawa) .