The October 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report increased the Global Carbon Budget for a likely (66%) probability of keeping global temperature increases below the dangerous 1.5 degrees. As a result, we have modified and simplified our charts. The revised carbon budget is 420,000 Mt CO2. Many calculations and charts are still based on the 2014 IPCC report and are biased towards population sharing. (We are working on updating this.)
Canada's Emissions Shares
How long before Canada uses up its emissions share of the carbon budget?
Canada's annual emissions (732 MtCO2e) were approximately 1.7% of global emissions in 2014 (according to Environment Canada).
If Canada follows our current targets we will have exceeded our emissions based share of the global carbon budget for 1.5 degrees before 2023.
It would be possible for Canada to meet an emissions based share of the budget to keep global temperature increases to less than 1.5 degrees if we reduce our emissions by approximately 58.5 MtCO2e (8%) each year.
Canada's current targets will allow us to keep within our emissions-based budget for less than 2 degrees.
However, both of these targets only work if we can arrange to share our carbon budget based on our current emissions. And even if we succeed at this we will not have addressed the issue of fairness.
If we are aiming for less than 1.5 degrees (or better) then the difference between the cumulative emissions that will occur if we follow our current targets and our fair share of the budget for less than 1.5 degrees is what we need to deal with. By 2060, if we keep going this way, the difference will be very large. This is why we need to deepen our domestic ambition and is what we need to "share"with developing countries by investing heavily in enabling them to reduce or avoid emissions and in addition find negative emissions.