David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, states about the extreme weather effects of climate change in Canada:

“It may be a dress rehearsal,”

“I tell people, think of the warmest summer you’ve ever experienced: it could be this one, it could be the one in 2005 or 1998 … in 50 years that’ll be the coldest summer.”

and according to Environment Canada:

“Over the period 1948 to 2013, the average annual temperature in Canada has warmed by 1.6°C (relative to the 1961-1990 average), a higher rate of warming than in most other regions of the world, reads the government’s climate change website.

“Future warming will be accompanied by other changes, including the amount and distribution of rain, snow, and ice and the risk of extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rainfalls and related flooding, dry spells and/or droughts, and forest fires,” it continues.

Many of us have become increasingly concerned about the lip-service that Canadian governments are paying to these predictions.

Although it is important to spend resources on adaptation, it is not possible to adapt to global temperature increases of 4 degrees C or more.

Canada is not on track to meet the Pan-Canadian targets. More important, these targets are far from sufficient to meet our Paris Agreement pledge of keeping global temperature increases well below 2 degrees C. According to scientists there is a maximum amount of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) which the atmosphere can hold if we want to avoid this. This maximum amount of CO2 is known as the carbon budget and has to be shared among all areas of the globe.

We have calculated that, for Canada to act in accordance with our Paris Agreement emissions must be reduced by at least 49% by 2020 and 100% by 2025. Our present targets exceed the limit for a 3 degree increase in global temperatures and will not reach zero until 2060.

One way of sharing this budget is on a per-capita basis (population-based). It is impossible for Canada to meet this population-based share of the global carbon budget for 2 degrees C. There are other sharing strategies.

The gap between our targets and our commitments is enormous. It makes a mockery of the Trudeau government's claim to be climate-friendly. They claim to be able to balance the economy and the climate; this is not possible.

A recent report by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (pdf) states that 'declining carbon emissions after 2020 is a necessity for meeting the Paris temperature limit of “well below 2 degrees”.'

We are very far from meeting our Paris pledges

Our targets (30% by 2030, 80% by 2050) are far too small to keep within the budget for well below 2 degrees. The budget is calculated using Canada's population share of the global budget for a likely chance of remaining under the 2 degrees target. However, other strategies for sharing emissions are fairer to both developed and developing countries.

However, we are even further away from keeping within the carbon budget for 1.5 degrees in the recent IPPC Special Report.